Only China has the ability to stop the war in Ukraine, China is now keeping Russia active from all sides. As a result, he has the influence and power to stop the war in Ukraine. René Foucault, a senior lecturer in the Department of Economics at Lancaster University in the United Kingdom, commented.
Western leaders angry at China’s role in Ukraine war. Beijing is giving Russia the money it needs to fight the war through trade. In this situation, sanctions are also being threatened against China.
They may be right to some extent in blaming China’s power. China is currently the only major world economy taking the risk of continuing to aid Russia. Moscow has become heavily dependent on Beijing. According to the West, this dependence is now so great that Beijing can persuade Vladimir Putin to end the war if it wants to.
In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Within a few months, Moscow realized that the fight was not going as planned. After that, the dependence of the Russian economy on Beijing increased.
On the other hand, Russia limits gas exports to pressure European countries supporting Ukraine. The European Union also imposed a ban on fuel imports from Russia. Consequently; Gas exports from Russia to Europe have dropped to zero. But before the war, Moscow met 40 percent of Europe’s gas needs.
As an alternative to Russian gas, major European economies have increased gas imports from the United States, the Middle East, and other places. At the same time, it is also leaning towards alternative fuels.
Fuel prices in Europe rose sharply in the early days of Russia’s withdrawal, but have now come down to bearable levels. As a result, electricity prices in Europe have also returned to near pre-war Ukraine levels. While gas prices are still a bit high, they are lower than they used to be. Europe’s gas reserves are expected to be almost full by the end of this year.
In this situation, Russia may face problems with its huge gas sales.
The collapse in European exports has already affected Russia. In 2023, the country’s state-owned energy company Gazprom faced financial losses for the first time. Earlier, this company paid about 10 percent of Russia’s total excise duty and revenue.
Moscow’s revenue from oil exports has also fallen. Due to restrictions on the purchase of fuel by Western countries, it has to be sold to other countries at a lower price. Mainstream tanker shipping companies are not carrying Russian oil for fear of Western sanctions. As a result, additional costs are incurred in transporting fuel oil to destinations like China and Russia through alternative fleets.
Russia is also in trouble with gas exports due to geography. Exporting this fuel by land requires huge investments in pipeline construction. Asia’s China is a potential large buyer, whose demand is well suited to building such pipelines. If Russia can sell the same or more gas to Beijing than it used to export to Europe, it will be able to recoup the previous losses. Pipelines have also been constructed for this purpose. However, China is asking for a huge discount on Russian gas prices.
Buyer China is in an advantageous position in negotiating such bargains. Because, the country can buy gas from anywhere in the world if it wants. On the other hand, Russia has to rely solely on China for its huge exports. Moscow has no chance to delay it. Because he urgently needed huge sums of money to finance the war. On the other hand, China is not in a crisis of not meeting its energy demand.
Russia has become dependent on China in other areas of the economy. 54 percent of the (foreign) trade of the companies registered on the Russian stock market is in the Chinese currency Yuan. They have to trade in yuan after Russia was banned from SWIFT, the international trading system controlled by the West. Now if China imposes a similar ban – then Russia will have no alternative currency to replace the yuan.
War critical materials are critical products like semiconductors or microchips. Products such as microchips that can be used for both military and civilian purposes are called dual-use products. China supplies 90 percent of Russia’s dual-use goods. They are essential in the manufacture of radars, sensors and other electronic components for use in the Ukraine war. In this case too, Russia has no alternative supplier.
Only Iran or U. It is not possible to win the Ukraine war with Korea. The two countries in question are also under heavy Western sanctions. On the other hand, only China can afford to supply any product Russia needs.
In this situation, the West has an opportunity to negotiate with China over Russia. Both parties can benefit immensely from such an agreement.
China is plagued by several domestic economic problems. One of these is the over-production capacity of its industries and, in comparison, the problem of finding new buyers.
The US is imposing huge tariffs on imports of many Chinese products, such as electric cars and solar cells. On the other hand, the EU is pressuring Chinese companies to set up factories in Europe to produce electric cars. They are also asking to exchange their technology for such production.
The Western world could offer Beijing to weaken Russia’s position, as a condition for trade concessions – in addition to overcoming its over-dependence on China.
It is very important for China to retain the market of the western world. Again, Westerners need the ability and technological know-how of China’s environmentally friendly industry.
Economically, Europe is also going through a difficult time. In this case, tariffs on Chinese goods are increasing the cost of goods for European consumers. Increasing cost of living. Therefore, if the trade war rushes, both sides will benefit. If they compromise, the West can get an incredible offer from China.
In other words, China is keeping Russia active from all sides. As a result, he has the influence and power to stop the war in Ukraine.
